The Who Stays, Who Goes – Defensive Edition considers the performance of players on the Cowboys’ roster and their contractual status for the 2017 season. Click here for the edition covering offensive players and specialists.
To assess performance, I used the grades given by Profootballfocus.com (PFF) for this season for weeks 1-6. Along with the PFF grade, a percentile rating is also assigned. The percentile is the rank of the player in comparison to all of the other players at the position that had enough plays to be ranked by PFF. The higher the percentile rank, the better.
To help assess the likelihood of being on the team next season, the base salary, roster bonuses, and workout bonuses due for the next season are listed below for those under contract beyond this season. This is essentially the new money due for next season and is used rather than the salary cap charge, which often includes charges for payments made in prior years. Because charges for the new money will hit the cap at some point regardless of what the team does, the new money is the additional amount that will be incurred (whether in 2017 or in a future season) based on the player being on the team in 2017. For large contracts, however, such as Tony Romo’s, the salary cap charge nonetheless becomes very important because the large cap charge from prior payments does have a considerable effect on the decision to keep or not keep a player. Salary related information is from Overthecap.com.
For impending free agents, the assessment of the likelihood of returning is nothing more than an educated guess since it is difficult to predict not only what the team will do, but what the other 31 teams might offer.
Finally, the chance of returning means being brought to training camp and not necessarily making the team to start the season. Considering that nothing is really 100%, 100% is used when only an extraordinary circumstance (e.g. horrific injury or off-field incident) would lead to the team not bringing a player back.
Defensive Ends
| Player | PFF Percentile | PFF Grade | 2017 Salary | Chance of Returning |
| Tyrone Crawford | 15% | 43.1 | $7,250,000 | 90% |
| Demarcus Lawrence | N/A | 45.8 | $1,170,906 | 100% |
| Jack Crawford | 8% | 42.1 | Free Agent | 80% |
| Benson Mayowa |
39% |
56.4 | $1,500,000 | 95% |
| Ryan Davis | N/A | 75.7 | Free Agent | 80% |
| David Irving |
N/A |
77.6 | Exclusive Rights FA | 100% |
Tyrone Crawford has been very disappointing this season and releasing him would allow the team to avoid over $7 million in salary. However, it would also result in significant dead money and no cap savings in 2017 unless he is designated as a post June 1st cut, and the team has been much better at avoiding incurring dead money in recent years. Expect the team to find a way to get under the cap at the beginning of the league year with Crawford’s current contract by restructuring other players’ contracts such as Travis Frederick and Tyron Smith. However, if Crawford continues to disappoint in the off-season and into training camp and the team finds enough improvements in the draft of free agency, the team could move on from Crawford as a post June 1st release and push much of the dead money into 2018. Last year’s performance was blamed on injury. If this season’s performance doesn’t improve and Crawford doesn’t impress in training camp, three seasons is plenty of time to consider it to be a trend that is unlikely to reverse.
Demarcus Lawrence has been productive as the team’s best edge rusher and comes back at a low salary.
Jack Crawford is rated surprisingly low by PFF, perhaps because he doesn’t typically beat offensive linemen one on one. However, he is somewhat effective in Marinelli’s defense because his quickness and tenacity allows him to make plays off of stunts and coming off of blocks as quarterback move around the pocket. Of course it would help to have defensive ends that can beat linemen on their initial move and make more plays without stunts, but the team is getting by with Crawford. Crawford drew little interest from other teams last off-season, and that should continue in the upcoming off-season. Expect Dallas to bring him back to camp and for him to face competition from some newcomers unless another team surprisingly offers Crawford a decent deal.
Benson Mayowa has been disappointing, but the expectations for him were based more on potential than past performance, so the expectations may have been unrealistic. Regardless, he is under contract for next season at a salary that is less than half of the signing bonus that he received before this season. He should be back and get the chance to improve.
Ryan Davis has been productive in his limited time with the team. He appears to be a free agent after the season, but the Cowboys should ensure that they give him a competitive offer to bring him back.
David Irving has been productive and the team controls his contract for 2017. He should be back but may be moved back to defensive tackle where he appears to be more productive.
After Demarcus Lawrence, the team has more questions than answers for the future of the defensive end position.
Defensive Tackles
| Player | PFF Percentile | PFF Grade | 2017 Salary | Chance of Returning |
| Terrell McClain | 62% | 72.6 | Free Agent | 85% |
| Cedric Thornton | 10% | 42.3 | $3,000,000 | 90% |
| Maliek Collins | 2% | 37.7 | $612,500 | 100% |
Terrell McClain has been very productive this season, and the defense wouldn’t be the same without him. He fits Marinelli’s defense perfectly, and the team will surely attempt to bring him back, although another team could provide a large contract that would be tough to match. Considering his injury history, that probably won’t happen and he will probably return.
Cedric Thornton hasn’t played up to his contract so far and is due $3,000,000 that will become guaranteed on the fifth day of the league year, meaning that a decision needs to be made before the draft. The team will likely keep Thornton and hope that he improves. Releasing him would lead to $3,750,000 in dead money. The team painted itself in a corner to an extent with his contract, but his contract is very modest compared to the big money deals other teams handed out in free agency.
Maliek Collins is rated surprisingly low by PFF – it seems like he has made some nice plays. Regardless, he will be back on his cheap rookie contract.
Look for more help at this position from the guys currently listed as defensive ends – Tyrone Crawford and David Irving.
Linebackers
| Player | PFF Percentile | PFF Grade | 2017 Salary | Chance of Returning |
| Sean Lee | 80% | 82.8 | $7,000,000 | 100% |
| Justin Durant | 36% | 50.5 | Free Agent | 70% |
| Mark Nzeocha | N/A | N/A | $615,000 | 100% |
| Jaylon Smith | N/A | N/A | $745,266 | 100% |
| Anthony Hitchens | 21% | 45.3 | $690,000 | 100% |
| Damien Wilson | N/A | 71.6 | $615,000 | 100% |
| Kyle Wilber | N/A | 48.8 | $1,250,000 | 95% |
| Andrew Gachkar | N/A | 43.5 | Free Agent | 40% |
| Rolando McClain | N/A | N/A | Free Agent | 3% |
Sean Lee is consistently very good to elite when healthy and there is no reason to consider moving on from him. Another shoo-in is Mark Nzeocha, who is on a cheap rookie deal and showed good potential in the pre-season. He could really help this defense the rest of this season.
Jaylon Smith, Damien Wilson, and Anthony Hitchens are also sure to be back on their rookie deals. Hopefully Smith is ready to go for next season, and he could take the defense to a whole new level. Hitchens hasn’t been that much better than a replacement level player due to being a liability in pass coverage and could be pushed off the roster at final cut downs next season, but odds are still in his favor for finishing out his rookie contract. Damien Wilson hasn’t gotten many snaps or much attention this season, but PFF has him rated well as the team’s second best linebacker.
Justin Durant has performed well this season and has shown to be a good fit in this defensive system. He tried free agency in the past and didn’t perform to the same level, so odds are he returns for another modest one or two year deal.
Kyle Wilbur is dependable, versatile, and a core special teams contributor, and he will return for the final year of his modest two year contract signed before this season.
Andrew Gachkar is a decent backup level player and good special teams contributor, but the team will likely offer only $1 to maybe $1.5 million per year. If he gets offered more elsewhere, the team can pocket the compensatory pick value and get younger at the position.
Defensive Backs
| Player | PFF Percentile | PFF Grade | 2017 Salary | Chance of Returning |
| Morris Claiborne | 83% | 82.3 | Free Agent | 50% |
| Brandon Carr | 68% | 77.3 | Free Agent | 50% |
| Orlando Scandrick | N/A | 69.0 | $3,000,000 | 100% |
| Anthony Brown | 64% | 76.0 | $540,000 | 100% |
| Byron Jones | 91% | 83.0 | $1,216,994 | 100% |
| Barry Church | 85% | 81.2 | Free Agent | 85% |
| Jeff Heath | N/A | 69.1 | $1,471,000 | 100% |
| JJ Wilcox | 65% | 77.7 | Free Agent | 70% |
| Kavon Frazier | N/A | N/A | $540,000 | 100% |
The defensive backfield has been the most surprising group on the team this season. It is amazing what the defense has been able to accomplish with a lackluster pass rush. The group is likely benefiting from three veteran players that are greatly exceeding their past performance in the last year of their contracts.
Brandon Carr has been a decent corner for a few years, but he hasn’t lived up to his lofty contract status. He has really stepped up his game this season. Despite that, the team may not be willing to give him more than a one or two year deal. He stated during training camp that he was wearing a rubber band on his wrist as motivation to get more interceptions so that he could get more money to stuff under the rubber band. Publicly stating that money is a major motivator is not something you want to hear from a player before giving out a mutli-year deal with guaranteed money. On the positive side, Carr is by all accounts a good guy and he hasn’t missed a game in his 4 plus seasons in Dallas. Carr will be 31 years old next May, so the team could bring him back on a modest short term deal, but it is just as likely that another team ignores the warning signs and bids him out of the team’s price range. The team would be eligible for a compensatory pick in return.
Morris Claiborne is having a career year after having a solid season last year. The big question is what has led to the resurgence and is it something that can be expected to continue. Fans typically point to Claiborne finally staying healthy, which has been written a few times before, and that Claiborne is playing with better confidence. Joey Ickes at Blogging The Boys wrote an excellent article explaining that a new dime defense may be helping both Carr and Claiborne with their weaknesses in defending slant routes. This had been a consistent weakness for Claiborne since his rookie season, and it has been frustrating watching the opponent consistently convert third downs on slant routes. Reports from training camp were consistent in that Claiborne was feistier this past camp. If he can maintain that level of motivation and competitiveness without the external motivation of upcoming contract negotiations, the team may have found a scheme that fits his talents perfectly by allowing him to play man coverage with linebacker help on short slant routes. It is also possible, however, that opponents design something to beat the new defensive scheme.
The team is in a bit of a predicament with Carr and Claiborne in that both represent some risk, but not signing either leaves the team with only two returning corners in Scandrick and Brown, plus Sammy Seamster on the practice squad. Look for the team to retain one while letting the other leave, but if the asking prices are too high for the team, they could watch both leave and sign a free agent from another team. Claiborne is younger and has much more potential but will also cost more and require a greater commitment of guaranteed money. Jerry Jones is an eternal optimist and seems to be more eager to hand out big contracts after a successful season, but Jason Garrett and Stephen Jones may keep Mr. Jones from going overboard.
Scandrick looks like a bargain at only $3,000,000 next season and Brown looks even better at only $540,000. His play has been stellar for a 6th round draft pick.
Byron Jones is looking like an excellent player and selecting him in the 2014 draft is looking better and better. He comes back on a bargain rookie deal.
Barry Church has been a solid and steady contributor for several seasons. The team likely targeted a safety and ended up selecting Kavon Frazier in the 2016 draft due to Church and Wilcox being free agents after this season. Despite the presence of Frazier, expect the team to bring Church back for a 2-3 year deal averaging around $4 million per year.
J.J. Wilcox should still have a place on the team at the right price, but that price will not be high. He is a core special teams contributor and a big hitter (ask Odell Beckham) who has limitations in coverage, although he has shown improvement this season.
Kavon Frazier will return on his cheap rookie deal and would be first in line to replace a spot that may be vacated by Church or Wilcox.
Summary
The Cowboys will face the biggest decisions on defense at cornerback, and those decisions will impact the team for several seasons to come. While the production at cornerback has been very good, there is definitely some risk in paying for Claiborne and/or Carr what the market will likely require. There is also risk in letting both of those players leave, which would leave a hole at a critical position. The Cowboys already have a hole at another critical position – defensive end. With limited draft picks and salary cap space, the team will need to be wise with their decision making and hope for the best.
